CFP Selection, Explained.
Selection Room is an independent analytics workspace for projecting the College Football Playoff field, auditing the bubble, comparing model vs committee, and testing selection assumptions. See who's in, who's out, why the bracket changes, and where a transparent model disagrees with the committee.
Not affiliated with the CFP, NCAA, ESPN, or any conference.
Selection Room
Live analysis workspace
Indiana
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big Ten
Georgia
SEC
Texas Tech
Big 12
Oregon
Big Ten
Alabama
SEC
Oklahoma
SEC
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
Ole Miss
SEC
Texas A&M
SEC
Tulane
American Athletic
James Madison
Sun Belt
Last in
First out
The November debate
Every November, the same questions come back.
Selection Room turns those debates into a transparent, testable workspace.
- 01Who is actually in?
- 02Who is being helped by the rules?
- 03Who is being punished by schedule, résumé, or predictive strength?
- 04And what does the committee appear to value?
Project the field
See the 12-team bracket, automatic bids, at-large teams, byes, and first-round matchups.
Audit the bubble
Track last teams in, first teams out, stability, and which assumptions move the cut line.
Compare the committee
See where Selection Room agrees or disagrees with the committee and what tendencies their rankings imply.
Test assumptions
Change factor weights in Scenario Lab and rerun the field under transparent rules.
The pipeline
From box scores to a defensible field.
Selection Room takes completed FBS results, builds a transparent ranking, applies CFP rules, and shows where the model and committee split.
- 01
Games & results
Every completed FBS result to date
- 02
Four-factor model
Résumé, predictive, strength of record, strength of schedule
- 03
CFP rules
Automatic bids, at-large teams, byes
- 04
Projected field
The seeded 12-team bracket
- 05
Committee comparison
Where the model and committee split
The workspace
Five surfaces, one rule engine.
The projected field
The full 12-team bracket with seeds, bids, and composite scores from the live run — byes up top, first-round games below.
Byes
Indiana
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big Ten
Georgia
SEC
Texas Tech
Big 12
First round
Oregon
Big Ten
Alabama
SEC
Oklahoma
SEC
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
Follow the path
Every pod is filled from the same engine, byes waiting in the quarterfinal.
Watch the cut line
Last teams in and first teams out, with the margin that separates them.
Stress the assumptions
Perturb the factor weights and see which teams hold their spot and which slip.
Run a sensitivity sweep to preview weight stress tests.
Checked against history
Compared to prior committee fields across a decade of finished seasons.
Committee Tendencies
Research-onlySee what the committee's rankings appear to value.
After each CFP ranking release, Selection Room estimates which factor mix best approximates the committee's published top 25 under a transparent four-factor model. Not a formula. Not a claim about secret weights. A way to inspect what the rankings imply.
View Committee TendenciesThese weights are descriptive approximations, not the committee's actual weights. Research-only; they do not change Selection Room's production model.
Built to be checked
Validated against a decade of committee fields.
Selection Room validates against prior committee fields, top-12 overlap, field overlap, and game-level predictive checks.
- 2024 committee field overlap
- 11/12
- Average top-12 overlap
- 78%
- Historical validation window
- 2014–2024
2024 committee field overlap
Average top-12 overlap
Historical validation window
Who it's for
Built for people who live in the selection debate.
Fans, writers, podcasters, analysts, and college football people who want a transparent audit layer.
Fans
Understand why your team is in or out.
Media
Get clear visuals for the bubble debate.
Analysts
Test assumptions and compare committee behavior.
Explore the 2025 field.
Test your own selection assumptions. See where the model and committee disagree.